A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that Americans are wary of import tariffs if they result in higher prices and doubt their effectiveness in aiding U.S. workers. This sentiment highlights the political risks associated with President Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and other countries.
The six-day poll, concluded on Tuesday, revealed that only 29% of respondents supported higher tariffs on imported goods even if it meant increased prices. In contrast, 42% disagreed, while 26% remained undecided. Furthermore, a mere 17% believed that tariffs on imported goods would personally benefit them. This public opinion poses a challenge for Trump’s economic agenda, particularly as economists predict his aggressive tariff plan could fuel inflation, mirroring the economic pressures that weakened President Biden and contributed to Trump’s return to power.
“Public opinion might temper Trump’s more extreme tariff plans, as price increases will be evident,” notes Mary Lovely, a trade economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Trump’s proposal includes a 10% universal import tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. He has also threatened 25% duties on goods from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% on Chinese goods, to combat fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration. These three countries are America’s largest trading partners. Given that approximately 10% of U.S. consumer spending is allocated to imports, as estimated by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, substantial tariffs could significantly impact household budgets.
Despite these concerns, Trump asserted on NBC’s Meet the Press that consumers do not bear the burden of tariffs, calling them “beautiful” and claiming they would enrich the country. The nationwide online poll, encompassing 4,183 U.S. adults, has a margin of error of approximately two percentage points.
Reviving the “Tariff Man” Approach and Potential Global Repercussions
Trump’s aggressive stance on tariffs evokes his “Tariff Man” persona from his first term, during which he imposed tariffs ranging from 7.5% to 25% on approximately $370 billion worth of Chinese goods. However, these previous tariffs exempted major Chinese import categories like smartphones and laptops, and overall U.S. inflation remained relatively stable.
In anticipation of potentially sweeping tariffs on U.S.-bound exports, Chinese officials are reportedly considering devaluing the yuan in 2025. This strategic move would offset the impact of tariffs by making Chinese goods more affordable in dollar terms.
Retaliatory measures have also been hinted at by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, suggesting a cycle of escalating tariffs. Canadian regional leaders have proposed various responses, including potentially restricting Canadian energy exports to the U.S., or leveraging U.S. dependence on Canadian-mined critical minerals.
While the decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs contributed to Trump’s 2016 and 2020 election victories in key Rust Belt states, current public sentiment appears less averse to international trade. The recent poll shows a decrease in the number of respondents who believe international trade harms average Americans by causing job losses, down to 48% from 64% in a 2018 Reuters/Ipsos poll.
This shift in public opinion, coupled with the potential for international trade conflicts, suggests that Trump’s ambitious tariff plan faces significant economic and political hurdles. The poll underscores the delicate balance between protecting domestic industries and maintaining stable international trade relations. The ultimate impact of these proposed tariffs on the American economy and global trade remains to be seen.
