JP Morgan anticipates a widening global refined copper deficit, reaching 160,000 metric tons by 2026. The bank maintains its copper price forecast at an average of $11,000 per metric ton for 2025, according to a recent research note.
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This projection follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s initiation of a national security investigation into potential tariffs on copper imports. JP Morgan expects a tariff of at least 10% on refined copper and copper product imports by the end of the third quarter, with a possibility of a more substantial 25% tariff.
Potential Tariff Impacts and Global Copper Supply
The bank suggests that potential tariffs could lead to excess copper inventory buildup in the U.S. ahead of implementation. This surplus could create a global copper shortage outside the U.S., potentially driving prices toward $10,400 per metric ton in the second half of 2025.
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China’s Demand and Global Copper Market Dynamics
JP Morgan forecasts a slowdown in China’s copper demand growth, from 4% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025. This moderation represents a potential downside risk to the bank’s bullish copper outlook. However, global copper demand growth is expected to decelerate only modestly, from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper market deficit of 22,000 metric tons in December, down from 124,000 metric tons in November.
Citi’s Copper Tariff Forecast and Market Response
Citi also anticipates a 25% copper tariff by the fourth quarter of 2025, aligning with JP Morgan’s assessment of the potential impact of President Trump’s executive order.
London copper prices experienced an increase, influenced by a weaker dollar and positive manufacturing data from China, the world’s largest copper consumer.
In conclusion, JP Morgan’s forecast points to a tightening copper market, driven by potential U.S. tariffs and steady global demand. While China’s slowing demand growth presents a potential risk, the bank remains optimistic about copper’s price trajectory in the coming years. The evolving tariff situation and its impact on global supply chains will be crucial factors to monitor in the copper market.
