Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and current Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, has revised his cryptocurrency market prediction, forecasting a peak in March 2025. Initially, Hayes anticipated a significant market downturn, a “Trump dump,” following Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration. He believed investors would quickly realize the challenges of implementing Trump’s pro-crypto agenda, including a Bitcoin reserve and crypto-friendly regulations.
However, Hayes now believes the “Trump dump” already occurred between mid-December and year-end. Despite this correction, he contends that sustained U.S. economic liquidity will propel the market upward. Bitcoin’s price has already risen 5.5% in early January, with its market capitalization surging over 10% to exceed $2 trillion.
Fueling Hayes’ revised prediction is the anticipated dollar liquidity influx in Q1 2025. He estimates that U.S. Treasury spending and a decrease in the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility could inject up to $612 billion into the financial system by March’s end. This liquidity surge could ignite further bullish momentum in the crypto market, counterbalancing potential disappointments surrounding Trump’s crypto policies.
Hayes is optimistic about the short-term performance of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. He advises Maelstrom’s investors to embrace a higher risk tolerance, recommending a “degen” approach and investments in decentralized science (DeSci) tokens. Hayes revealed Maelstrom’s acquisition of tokens like BIO, VITA, and NEURON.
While bullish on the near-term crypto outlook, Hayes acknowledges potential risks for the remainder of 2025, including debt ceiling negotiations, tax deadlines, and potential monetary policy shifts by the Bank of Japan or China. Nevertheless, he maintains that the favorable liquidity environment will drive market growth through March 2025.
Experts forecast Bitcoin reaching $150,000 to $250,000 later this year. Hayes encourages calculated risk-taking while monitoring market dynamics as the year progresses. This projected market peak presents a compelling opportunity for investors prepared to navigate the evolving crypto landscape.
