Bitcoin (BTC) call options are commanding a higher premium than Ether (ETH) calls, indicating a persistently bullish outlook for Bitcoin relative to Ether following the absence of any cryptocurrency mention in former President Donald Trump’s inaugural address. This price difference reflects a prevailing market sentiment favoring Bitcoin’s potential for growth.
According to risk reversal data from Amberdata, as of midday in Hong Kong, BTC call options, which provide bullish exposure to the leading cryptocurrency, were trading at a premium compared to ETH calls across various time horizons. Risk reversal quantifies the difference in implied volatility between call and put options. Positive values suggest a bullish bias, as seen in the current Bitcoin market.
Specifically, Bitcoin’s risk reversals show that short-term and near-term call options are trading at a premium of four to five volatility points over put options. In contrast, ETH call options are trading at a comparatively lower volatility premium to puts. This discrepancy highlights the stronger bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin.
This pricing dynamic suggests that the Ether-Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio is expected to continue its downward trajectory. Earlier this week, the ratio reached a three-year low of 0.03, further reinforcing the current market trend. The market anticipates Bitcoin’s price to outperform Ether’s in the near future.
The pro-Bitcoin sentiment is particularly noteworthy considering that former President Trump made no mention of a strategic bitcoin reserve in his inaugural address, despite prior speculation suggesting he might. This omission, coupled with a report indicating that GOP congressional priorities did not include Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, underscores the market’s inherent bullishness towards Bitcoin independent of political endorsements.
Furthermore, traders on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket have lowered their expectations for a Trump-initiated strategic Bitcoin reserve. The probability of such an announcement within his first 100 days in office has dropped to 38%, down from almost 50% the previous day. This decline highlights the market’s resilience and its reliance on fundamental factors rather than political speculation.
In conclusion, the options market data points to a sustained bullish outlook for Bitcoin, driven by factors beyond political developments. The higher premium on BTC call options relative to ETH calls reflects a confident market sentiment in Bitcoin’s continued outperformance compared to Ether. This trend suggests a continued focus on Bitcoin as the preferred cryptocurrency investment in the current market landscape.
