Global warming is causing a concerning decrease in wind speeds across Europe during summer months, placing increased strain on the continent’s energy systems as rising temperatures simultaneously drive up demand for cooling. This phenomenon, known as “stilling,” poses significant challenges to Europe’s transition to renewable energy and its ambitious climate goals.
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This decrease in wind speed, a trend also observed in other northern mid-latitude regions like North America, results from the amplified warming of both land and the troposphere, the atmospheric layer closest to the Earth’s surface, according to a study led by climate scientist Gan Zhang of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. Projections indicate a potential reduction in wind speeds of up to 5% between 2021 and 2050. While seemingly small, these reductions can significantly impact wind energy production.
Marginal Market Impacts of Reduced Wind Speeds
“The energy system is a marginal market,” explains Zhang. “A 5 to 10% change at the margin can trigger huge price fluctuations.” This sensitivity underscores the difficulties faced by European nations that have transitioned away from fossil fuels and nuclear power in favor of intermittent renewable energy sources. The current situation jeopardizes the region’s climate objectives, especially considering how freezing temperatures and windless days this past winter have depleted gas reserves. While a direct link to climate change in this instance remains unconfirmed, the long-term trend of “stilling” raises serious concerns.
From Temperature to Wind and Sun: A Paradigm Shift in European Energy
The declining wind speeds signify a fundamental change in the European energy landscape. The market is shifting from a dependence on temperature-driven energy demand to one increasingly reliant on the unpredictable nature of wind and solar resources, observes Christopher Vogel, a wind and tidal power researcher at the University of Oxford. “The current operational reality hinges on whether it’s sunny or windy,” he notes.
Vogel confirms that the recent research on summer “stilling” aligns with other studies predicting a statistically significant impact of climate change on wind patterns in the latter half of this century. However, quantifying the precise effect on future energy production remains challenging due to uncertainties in modeling extreme wind speed events, even with the most reliable climate datasets.
Data Challenges in Predicting Future Wind Patterns
A significant obstacle in predicting future wind patterns is the lack of comprehensive historical data compared to temperature and precipitation records. This scarcity makes modeling future climate outcomes related to wind more difficult, as highlighted by Vogel, who investigated the 2021 wind drought that compelled the UK to reactivate decommissioned coal plants. He further points out the localized nature of wind measurements, easily influenced by topography, buildings, and even the presence of wind farms themselves.
Emerging Evidence of Climatological Downturn in Wind Power
Despite data limitations, Ivan Føre Svegaarden, of the Norway-based weather and climate consultancy TradeWpower AS, believes that European wind power production is already exhibiting signs of a climatologically driven decline. “We are observing a more frequent and prolonged occurrence of dominant high-pressure systems,” Svegaarden states. He suggests that prioritizing recent measurements over older historical data in analyses provides a clearer picture of the atmospheric changes linked to Europe’s record-breaking warming trends.
Addressing the Challenge of Declining Wind Resources
Zhang’s research team tackled the issue of limited historical data by utilizing multiple datasets and conducting simulations that consistently revealed an increase in summer “stilling.” While Svegaarden expresses concern that the EU might have overestimated the role of wind power in achieving its clean energy targets, Zhang remains more optimistic, believing that wind energy can still be a vital component of the energy mix for most countries.
Both Zhang and Vogel emphasize the need for innovative approaches to renewable energy development in Europe. Strategies include diversifying generation locations, expanding interconnectivity between energy grids, and establishing reliable backup power sources to mitigate the impact of fluctuating wind power generation. Vogel concludes, “Relying solely on wind to address the UK’s electricity needs year-round is not feasible, especially considering potential shifts in peak demand periods throughout the year.” This sentiment resonates across Europe as it grapples with the complex interplay between climate change and energy security.
