Nvidia, a leading designer of graphics processing units (GPUs), may release its next-generation Rubin GPU earlier than anticipated, potentially boosting the company’s 2026 revenue growth beyond current projections. This analysis explores the potential implications of an early Rubin release on Nvidia’s financial performance and market position.
Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes suggests that several indicators point towards a potential Rubin launch in the first half of 2026, six months ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. These indicators include:
- Reports of Nvidia urging SK Hynix to expedite the production of next-generation memory.
- Taiwanese partners reportedly developing designs for Rubin-based AI servers.
- Indications that TSMC, a major semiconductor foundry, plans to expand its advanced packaging capacity.
Initially slated for a 2026 release, Rubin is the successor to Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU, which is expected to see a significant rollout early next year. Reitzes notes that while Nvidia previously indicated a 2026 release for Rubin, investors anticipated a heavier volume release in the fourth quarter due to supply chain considerations.
An accelerated Rubin release could significantly impact Nvidia’s 2026 revenue, potentially exceeding the consensus estimate of 30% growth. This early launch could also alleviate investor concerns regarding an AI bubble and computational limitations imposed by the “law of large numbers.” Rubin is projected to offer significant advancements in speed, power efficiency, and memory capacity.
Reitzes believes that an earlier release of Rubin, anticipated to be a high-performance chip, would mitigate these concerns and potentially increase target multiples for investors. It could also lead to an earlier realization of increased earnings per share (EPS). His current projection for Nvidia’s EPS in 2026 is $5.55, which, at a 35x profit multiple, translates to a price target of $195, representing a potential upside of 34% from current levels.
Even if Rubin is not released early, Reitzes maintains a bullish outlook on Nvidia’s stock, emphasizing that launch timelines often shift. He views a potential early release as a positive catalyst but not a critical factor in the company’s long-term growth narrative.
Nvidia’s stock has experienced substantial growth this year, surging 193% following a remarkable 236% return in 2023. This performance underscores the company’s strong position in the market and the high expectations surrounding its future product releases. While an early Rubin launch could further accelerate this growth, the company’s long-term prospects remain promising regardless of the exact timing. A spokesperson for Nvidia declined to comment on these speculations.
