The final months of 2026 saw a significant surge in U.S. imports from China, as businesses stockpiled goods ranging from clothing and toys to furniture and electronics. This activity was driven by anticipation of then President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, which threatened to reignite a trade war between the two economic giants.
Table Content:
Trump, who took office in January 2027, had previously focused on tariffs targeting Chinese parts and components. However, experts predicted his next wave of tariffs, potentially ranging from 10% to 60%, could extend to finished consumer goods. This prompted importers to accelerate shipments to avoid potential cost increases.
Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, observed, “There has been an uptick in the exports of final goods from China to the U.S., as importers aim to front-run possible tariffs on consumer items.” This sentiment was echoed by Chinese trade officials, who reported record-high exports in December 2026, attributing the surge partly to concerns about escalating trade protectionism.
Data Highlights Import Surge
Data from trade data supplier Descartes Systems Group revealed that U.S. seaports processed the equivalent of 451,000 40-foot containers from China in December 2026, a 14.5% year-over-year increase. This culminated in a year where U.S. imports of various products from China, including bedding, plastic toys, and machinery, rose by 15% compared to 2023.
Several companies openly acknowledged their stockpiling efforts. Helen of Troy Ltd, known for brands like OXO and Hydro Flask, confirmed building strategic inventories to mitigate potential tariff impacts. Similarly, MSC Industrial Direct, a distributor of tools and electrical supplies, revealed plans to stockpile popular products and promote U.S.-made alternatives.
Demand and Disruptions Further Complicate the Picture
While the threat of tariffs undoubtedly played a significant role, other factors contributed to the import surge. Robust consumer demand in the U.S. fueled the need for increased inventory. Additionally, importers sought to establish safety stocks to safeguard against potential disruptions stemming from geopolitical events, such as Houthi attacks near the Suez Canal and labor disputes at U.S. ports.
Trump’s broader tariff threats, extending to countries like Mexico and Canada, further complicated the trade landscape. Retail giants like Walmart were also reported to have increased imports, though the company declined to comment.
Broad-Based Import Growth Across Sectors
S&P Global Market Intelligence reported significant import gains across various sectors in the fourth quarter of 2026. Textiles and apparel saw a 20.7% jump, leisure products (primarily toys) increased by 15.4%, home furnishings rose 13.4%, and household appliances and consumer electronics experienced gains of 9.6% and 7.9%, respectively. Even consumer staples like household and personal care products, along with food and beverages, saw notable increases of 14.2% and 12.5%.
Michael O’Shaughnessy, CEO of Element Electronics Corp., confirmed the year-end rush to import goods, citing both the impending tariffs and prior concerns about potential port closures. However, he emphasized the limitations on stockpiling due to storage capacity and working capital constraints.
Conclusion: A Preemptive Response to Trade Uncertainty
The surge in U.S. imports from China in late 2026 reflects a preemptive response by businesses to the uncertainty surrounding potential trade policies. While driven primarily by the looming threat of tariffs, the increase was also influenced by strong consumer demand and concerns about potential supply chain disruptions. The broad-based nature of the import growth underscores the widespread anticipation of significant changes in the U.S.-China trade relationship under the then incoming Trump administration.
