U.S. crude oil and fuel stockpiles are anticipated to have decreased last week, according to a recent Reuters poll of industry analysts. This projection signals potential shifts in the energy market and could influence fuel prices.
Table Content:
Five analysts surveyed by Reuters predicted an average decline of approximately 1.9 million barrels in crude inventories for the week ending December 20th. This forecast follows a confirmed decrease of 934,000 barrels to 421 million barrels in the week ending December 13th, as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The prior week’s draw was slightly less than the 1.6 million barrel reduction anticipated by analysts in a previous Reuters poll.
Figure 1: Comparison of Reuters Analyst Forecasts and Actual EIA Inventory Data for Crude Oil, Distillates, and Gasoline.
Analyst Predictions and Previous Data
The table below summarizes the analysts’ forecasts and compares them with actual figures from the previous week and year-ago changes:
| Commodity | Forecast Change (Million Barrels) | Actual Previous Week (Million Barrels) | Change from Previous Week (Million Barrels) | Year-Ago Change (Million Barrels) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | -1.9 | 421 | -0.9 | -7.1 |
| Distillate | -0.3 | 118.2 | -3.2 | 0.7 |
| Gasoline | -1.1 | 222 | 2.3 | -0.7 |
| Refinery Runs | -0.4% | 91.8% | -0.6% | 0.9% |
| Natural Gas Storage | -100 BCF to -99 BCF | N/A | N/A | N/A |
In addition to crude oil, analysts also projected declines in gasoline and distillate inventories. Gasoline stockpiles were expected to have fallen by around 1.1 million barrels, while distillate inventories, which encompass diesel and heating oil, were predicted to decrease by approximately 300,000 barrels. Refinery utilization rates were estimated to have dipped by 0.4 percentage points from the preceding week’s 91.8% of total capacity.
Preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), cited by anonymous market sources, indicated a larger decrease of 3.2 million barrels in crude stocks for the week ending December 20th. The API data also suggested a 3.9 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories and a 2.5 million barrel decline in distillate stocks. These figures offer a preliminary glimpse into the market trends and may differ from the official EIA report.
Insights from Individual Analyst Estimates
A closer look at individual analyst estimates reveals a range of perspectives on the potential inventory changes. The table below summarizes forecasts from various organizations:
| Organization | Crude (Million Barrels) | Distillate (Million Barrels) | Gasoline (Million Barrels) | Refinery Runs (% Change) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSEG | -1.5 | -0.7 | 0.5 | -0.4 |
| Macquarie Group | -3.8 | 0.9 | 2.5 | N/A |
| Price Futures Group | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -1.0 |
| Ritterbusch Associates | -2.0 | 1.9 | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| Rystad Energy | -0.6 | -1.1 | -2.7 | 0.3 |
This diverse range of forecasts underscores the complexities of predicting market fluctuations and emphasizes the importance of considering multiple perspectives when analyzing energy market trends.
Looking Ahead to the EIA Report
The official EIA report, typically released on Wednesday, was postponed to Friday, December 27th, due to the Christmas holiday. Market participants will closely examine the EIA’s data to confirm these projections and gain a more comprehensive understanding of the current state of U.S. oil and fuel inventories. This data will be crucial for informing investment decisions and assessing the overall health of the energy sector.
