The diesel car market share in Western Europe held relatively steady in November, mirroring October’s figures and remaining consistent with the gradual decline observed over the past year. November’s diesel share was 13.1%, compared to 14.6% in the same month last year. This stability persists despite concerns that Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) pushing Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) to meet 2024 Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) targets might negatively impact diesel sales.
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Diesel Market Resilience and Potential Future Challenges
The limited size of the UK diesel market prevented any discernible impact from the BEV push. However, 2025 presents a more significant challenge for diesel cars. Not only will stricter ZEV mandates be enforced in the UK, but the EU will also implement the next phase of its CO2 emissions reduction program for new cars. These regulations could place further downward pressure on diesel car sales.
Source: GlobalData
In November, diesel car sales across Western Europe were approximately 20,000 units lower year-over-year. Cumulative sales for 2024 reached 1.5 million units, representing a decrease of nearly 200,000 units compared to 2023. Germany remains the cornerstone of the region’s diesel market, with cumulative sales in 2024 only 23,000 units below 2023 levels. This performance offsets more substantial declines in France and Italy.
While Germany’s BEV market is anticipated to rebound in 2025 due to improving market conditions, potentially impacting Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle sales, diesel is expected to maintain a significant presence in the country’s premium powertrain segment for the foreseeable future.
OEM Diesel Share Shift Analysis
Stellantis has experienced the most significant shift away from diesel in 2024, while other OEMs have seen minimal change.
Source: GlobalData
Source: GlobalData
In conclusion, despite regulatory pressures and the rise of BEVs, the Western European diesel car market remains relatively stable. However, upcoming stricter emission regulations in 2025 pose a significant challenge for the future of diesel cars in the region. While Germany continues to support the diesel market, long-term trends suggest a gradual decline in favor of alternative powertrains.
